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Succession Done Right, and Why AI Is Coming for the Estimate - Oct 2, 2026

02 October 2026

Welcome back

Happy Friday, and welcome to Issue 2 of Bridging the Gap.

Thanks to everyone who read and shared the first issue. Last time I looked at the succession gap in the ENR Top 400, and how many firms have a big leadership handover coming with no clear plan for it.

So this week I wanted to look at the other side: firms that are getting it right. After that there's a quick wrap of the week's news, a company spotlight, and some thoughts on AI in estimating, which I think is about to change a lot more than people expect.


Movers and shakers: succession done well

Last issue I said the firms that plan early get to choose their next leader. Here are a few that have done exactly that this year.


FlatironDragados: two lifers step up

In July, FlatironDragados made Richard Grabinski president of its US business, moving up from COO. He joined Flatiron in 2005 as an operations manager. Dale Nelson takes over as COO. He's been with the firm since 1997, starting as a project engineer and PM.

Why it works: after a big merger, putting two people who know the business inside out at the top keeps things steady for clients and crews.


Zachry Construction Corporation: from intern to president

Travis Mross was named president of Zachry Construction in April. He joined as an intern in 2000 and ran Gulf Coast and South and Central Texas transportation, water and utilities work before taking the top job. With Zachry pushing hard into water after buying CRESCENT CONSTRUCTORS INC, it makes sense to have a Texas operator in charge.

Why it works: the pipeline was built on purpose. Twenty-six years from intern to president is exactly the kind of long-term development most firms say they want.


Skanska: a handover with a runway

Skanska named Antonia Junelind as CFO of USA Civil, taking over from Jari Mäntylä , who moves to strategic initiatives before he retires. She's been at Skanska for 15+ years. The part I like is the timing: it was announced in September, but she doesn't start until January 1, 2027.

Why it works: four months' notice means no cliff edge. That's what a planned handover looks like.


AECOM: planning ahead of a retirement

AECOM has named Manav Kumar as chief legal officer as David Gan gets ready to retire. Kumar has been with the company since 2017.

Why it works: same pattern again. Someone is ready before the seat is empty.


The other route: going outside

Not every good succession is internal. North American Construction Group ran a global search over several months, looking at both internal and external candidates, and picked Brad Rogers, a former mining CEO, to take over from Barry Palmer on December 1.

Why it works: they tested the internal bench against the market and made a deliberate choice. Either answer is fine as long as you've actually asked the question.

The common thread: every one of these was announced ahead of time, with a clear successor and a clear date. None of them were scrambling.

From the MKH ENR Top 400 Deep Dive: CEO Role Entry

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Mross and Nelson aren't outliers. Among Top 400 CEOs who were promoted from within, 48% had been at their firm for 21+ years before getting the top job, and 70% had been there at least 11 years. That's why the firms above are worth copying. When the route to the top takes two decades, the only way to have someone ready is to start developing them years before you need them.


The week in brief

NTE expansion opens months early in Fort Worth. The $414M North Tarrant Express Capacity Improvement Project is open. It adds a free general-purpose lane and a TEXpress managed lane in each direction along 10 miles of Loop 820 and SH 183/121 between Euless and Fort Worth, and it finished about four months ahead of schedule. It's been paid for entirely from toll revenue, with no cost to TxDOT or taxpayers. The design-build JV, North Tarrant Infrastructure, is Ferrovial and Webber, a Ferrovial company. The concession is held by NTE Mobility Partners (Ferrovial, Cintra, Meridiam and APG). My take: finishing early on a live, busy DFW corridor is hard to do, and it's a good example of why owners keep choosing design-build P3s. It's also a nice lead-in to this week's spotlight.

The next funding cliff is already hitting bids. Construction Dive reports that some state DOTs are scaling back bid openings because the IIJA extension to December 11 didn't carry the advance appropriations with it. Precast suppliers are warning bridge work could stop dead without new money. The House committee passed BUILD America 250 by 62 to 2 in May, but it still needs full House and Senate votes. My take: watch the October and November lettings. If they're thin, expect a rush of work once a bill lands.

Tennessee's I-24 deal is even bigger than it looked. Engineering News-Record puts the full concession value of the I-24 Southeast Choice Lanes at $24.8B, with $9.2B of that for construction. It's the largest interstate express lanes P3 in US history. Heavy construction isn't expected until 2029. My take: that gives Webber, Ferrovial and AECOM a few years to build their Nashville teams, and they'll start early.

Eli Lilly and Company breaks ground on a $6.5B plant in Houston. It's a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant rather than civil work, but a site that size means a lot of earthwork, utilities and road upgrades around it. My take: the Houston site and utility contractors are going to be busy.

Upstate South Carolina's $92M sewer upgrade hits its first milestone. ReWa has finished Phase 1A of the Swamp Rabbit gravity sewer between Greenville and Travelers Rest, replacing old 20- and 36-inch lines with a single 60-inch main that includes a 70-foot steel bridge over the Reedy River. The full four-phase job runs to 2031.

Veolia takes Milwaukee to court. Veolia is suing the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District over how its wastewater operations contract was procured. My take: as more utilities move to long-term O&M and progressive design-build contracts, expect more fights over how they're awarded.


Company spotlight: Webber, a Ferrovial company

If one company has had the year in my markets, it's Webber, the Texas-based Ferrovial company headquartered in The Woodlands. It keeps showing up in the biggest deals in Texas and Tennessee, across both roads and water.

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Why it's interesting

  • Roads and water under one roof. Most firms are strong in one or the other. Webber is winning big design-build work in both, and the Austin pump station literally connects the two.
  • Local firm, global backing. It has Ferrovial's balance sheet for P3s and mega-projects, and a Texas operating base that knows TxDOT and the cities.
  • A long pipeline. Between Grand Parkway, I-24 and the water plants, it has work running into the 2030s.

What it means for talent: design-build PMs, water plant supers and anyone with P3 experience are going to be in demand at Webber and at every competitor trying to keep up. If you're one of those people, you have options right now.


Opinion: AI is coming for the estimate, not the estimator

This year the heavy civil software world quietly changed. In February, HCSS moved HeavyBid onto the web, which it described as "setting the stage for AI-assisted estimating." In April, Nemetschek Group agreed to buy a 72% stake in HCSS, a business with $215M in revenue and more than 4,000 contractor customers. Nemetschek had already bought Firmus AI, which reads drawings and flags design gaps.

Put those together and it's pretty clear where this is going. The tool most civil estimators use every day is about to get a lot smarter.

What changes first

Takeoff. Counting, measuring and quantifying from plans is exactly the kind of work AI is good at, and it's already being automated in vertical construction. Heavy civil is next. Pipe runs, earthwork volumes and structure quantities are all data that a machine can pull out of a drawing set faster than a person.

Where the real advantage sits

It won't be the software, because everyone can buy that. It'll be the data. A firm with 20 years of clean production rates, crew costs and bid history can train its tools on how it actually builds. A firm whose history lives in old spreadsheets and people's heads can't. That gap will show up in bid accuracy, and in a low-bid market that decides who wins.

The risk nobody's talking about

Paste your pricing into a free, public AI tool and you may be handing your numbers to someone else. Every firm needs a clear rule on what estimators can and can't put into which tools, and a lot of firms don't have one yet.

The water side is saying the same thing

This week at #WEFTEC in New Orleans, AI was everywhere. The Water Environment Federation named it one of its four priorities for the sector, next to workforce, water reuse and cybersecurity, and it has set up a Water AI Nexus Center of Excellence. Vendors like infinitii ai were showing overflow-risk tools that run on data utilities already collect, with no new sensors needed.

The most useful bit for me was a panel with the EPA and the Association of State Drinking Water Administrators (ASDWA). Their advice was to start with low-risk jobs like workflows and decision support, get your data in order first, and set clear rules on what information goes into which tools. ASDWA's Anthony DeRosa summed it up: "It's people, processes, and technology in that order, always." The EPA's Pouya Lavian added: "Everyone wants you to get there fast, but you got to get there responsibly."

That's exactly the right approach for contractors too. Owners and utilities are moving on AI, which means the firms building their plants will be expected to keep up.

The bit that links back to last issue

This is the part that worries me. Junior estimators learn the trade by doing takeoffs, thousands of them. That's how they learn what a job really costs. If AI does that work, how do you grow your next chief estimator? And given how many CEOs come up through estimating and operations, how do you grow your next president?

I don't think the answer is to hold back on the technology. I think it's being deliberate about training: pairing juniors with senior estimators, having them check the AI's numbers rather than just accept them, and getting them out on site so they understand what the quantities mean.

My take: the estimator isn't going anywhere. But the one who can challenge an AI output, spot the risk in a scope and build a winning strategy will be worth a lot more than the one who can only do takeoffs. Firms should hire and train for that now.

Is AI actually changing how your team bids yet, or is it still just talk? I'd love to hear.


By the numbers: top GCs in water treatment

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The top three in ENR's water treatment and desalination ranking are neck and neck: PCL Construction ($595.7M), The Walsh Group - Walsh Construction & Archer Western ($583.4M) and Kiewit ($535.4M). After that there's a big drop to Garney in fourth ($346M). Sundt Construction comes in eighth at $142.5M, and with jobs like Pecan Creek in Denton, I'd expect it to keep climbing. Winning plant work depends on estimators who really understand treatment processes, and those are some of the hardest people to find right now.


That's a wrap

Thanks for reading Issue 2. If your firm has made a senior hire or promotion you'd like me to feature in Movers and Shakers, send it my way. And if there's a company you'd like spotlighted next time, let me know.

Whether you're hiring, thinking about your next move, or just want to talk about the market, I'm always happy to chat. We also pay referral fees for good recommendations.

Have a great weekend, and see you in the next issue of Bridging the Gap.

Sophie Booker, Senior Consultant, Heavy Civil Division at MKH Search

🔔 Follow Sophie Booker and subscribe so you don't miss the next one

📩 sophie.booker@mkhsearch.com


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